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May 30, 2016

Britain’s headache: Remain or Leave

Following London’s mayoral elections held in early May, the centre of political debates in the UK has shifted to 23 June EU referendum, which will bring a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity for majority of the population barring those from non-UK EU states. The referendum will decide whether the UK
would stay in or leave the European Union. The core debate centres around “would Brexit – a shorthand way of mentioning the Britain leaving the EU – make the UK "great" again or risk the kingdom’s global power standing?”  

The stakes are high for the UK, as well as globally, particularly for member states of the EU. For EU, which is often blamed by critics for its undemocratic style of functioning, it is immensely important to have UK in the bloc, especially since the union is rapidly losing its influence given the persisting economic downturn of the region and overwhelming migrant crisis. An EU without UK Will leave the group further crumble – economically and strategically too.  

The ‘Remain’ camp supported by UK Prime Minister David Cameron, as well as several world leaders, including US President Barrack Obama, claim that the UK is stronger inside the EU, and leaving the union will have devastating impact on the country’s economy. ‘Leave’ campaigners argue that a vote to leave the EU would be a vote for freedom and restoration of democracy, as it would allow UK to control unregulated mass migration of unskilled workers from European countries and take back control of various trade policies and laws imposed on the country by the EU.

A Brexit cartoon
The pervasive Euroscepticism in Britain has some historical contexts attached to it. A significant number of British people do not see themselves as European. A survey by European Commission in 2015 indicated that around 55% of UK nationals saw themselves as EU citizens, compared to a 67% average in rest of the union. In addition, Britain does not share any land borders with Europe and is detached from mainland continent by several miles of sea. Centuries of tussle with France, Germany and Romans further draws a thick line between British and European identities.     

British public appears to be evenly split on the 23 June referendum. Various surveys indicate that ‘Vote Leave’ has around 45% of the vote share, with ‘Vote Remain’ on marginally more than 50%. Going by the opinion polls, which have persistently shown ‘Remain’ camp leading the vote share for over the past several months, the possibility of Brexit looks weak despite the public concern over immigration and border control have recently delivered a boost to the ‘Leave’ campaign.  

Regardless of whether the UK stays in or leaves, the referendum poses several harsh questions for the EU to answer and challenges to meet if it does not want to lose its significance in the coming years. Opinions vastly differ as to whether the EU faces a democratic deficit and its style of governance lacks democratic legitimacy. While several EU leaders and supporters are calling for a reformation of the bloc, the union’s critics suggest that it should condense its power or should just disintegrate.